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Storage - Optical Drive Market Fourth Quarter 2011

The Canadian market for optical drives had poor results for the last quarter of 2011.  During Q4 2011, sales of all optical drives (DVD ROM, DVD RW, Blu-Ray ROM, and Blu-Ray RW) were 44% lower than in Q4 2010.

EXHIBIT 1: Quarterly Optical Drive Shipments: Q1 10 – Q4 11

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The year over year decline had been equally bad in Q3 2011.  The reason was simply that purchases in the first half of the year had been way out of line with end-user demand.  Because of the Tohoku Earthquake in March, many organizations bought heavily fearing that once product ran out in North America, they would be unable to get drives.  As a result, distributors and OEMs began the second half of the year with excessive inventory, which resulted in very weak sales in the last two quarters of the year.  With channel inventory now finally in line with market demand, sales will pick up in the New Year.

In Q4 2011, shipments of Internal and External DVD Writers were down sharply in relation to Q3 2011.  DVD Technology is now in the declining phase of its life cycle.  Unit sales will continue to slide.  What is encouraging is that shipments of in the emerging Blu-Ray categories are increasing robustly.  Unit sales of DVD-ROM Drives were higher than they had been in over a year. 

In 2012, growth will be very strong for all categories of Blu-Ray drives as lower prices will cause market adoption to accelerate.  Shipments of DVD products will decrease at a declining rate as the market for white box computers is showing signs of new vigour.

EXHIBIT 2: Quarterly Optical Drive Shipments: Q4 10 – Q4 11

Thousands

Q4-10

Q1-11

Q2-11

Q3-11

Q4-11

DVD-ROM

2.7

2.8

3.1

2.7

3.3

DVD-RW Internal

121.2

120.0

134.0

85.4

66.8

DVD-RW External

29.5

14.8

14.0

16.0

10.6

Blu-Ray Readers (Internal and External)

2.3

4.1

3.6

2.9

4.1

Blu-Ray External Writers

0.0

0.7

0.6

1.0

1.4

Blu-Ray Internal Writers

8.1

8.8

6.4

7.2

5.8

Total

163.8

151.2

161.7

115.2

92.0

YoY Growth

-29%

-39%

8%

-31%

-44%

EXHIBIT 3: Optical Drive Market Leaders: Q2 2010

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LG was the leading vendor of optical drives in the Canadian market during Q4 2011, accounting for 70% of all shipments.  The shares of the vendors changed very little between Q3 2011 and Q4 2011.